Actually this is very close to mm5 prediction. Mm5 predicted lift to around 14,000 ft and that is what this skew-t is saying. The only true inversion is at 14,000 where you see the temperature line go straight up for a bit. Everything below that point is unstable because it follows the DALR more or less. The slight curving away from the DALR just means that a thermal will be slowed or maybe stopped if it isn't strong enough. If the temperature had been one or two degrees warmer at g round level you would have an easy climb to 14,000 (600mb) I always check the true skew-t to the mm5 and to my experience if I flew during that time. Besides learning a lot about the air you will also eventually be good at reading any skew-t for any part of the world you happen to be flying in. Remember that a skew-t won't look the same as the mm5 sounding graph because the temperature scale is set on a skew to make it easier to read when air is stable or unstable. The true skill to acquire is to get the morning skew-t and then figure out from that information what the day is going to be like. All you need is to get is the predicted high temperature for the day and the predicted dew point. Draw in the temp. line and then with with forecasted dewpoint figure out whether there will be clouds or not. Using this technique it is much easier to see the inversions and at what time they will break down or not break down. With practice you'll be able to read a skew-t with a glance. Figuring out the winds for the afternoon using the morning skew- t is very difficult but doable.You just need to find a lot more information. I let the giant cray computer do it which I find amazingly accurate and most easily viewed on the mm5.
more helpful quotes for understanding inland mountain weather:
When the Jet Stream is overhead as it was today there is a tremendous amount of energy close by. Waves can be set up in mountainous areas which can cause powerful and sudden wind shifts at the surface. -Bruce
As long as the jet stream is close, it is prone to weather weirdness. But it could still be fine. Just not very predictable. -Paul M.
Another great commentary from weather guru Hayden on reading the MM5 report: "Yes, nice looking lapse rate but where you figured out cloudbase to be at about 7000 ft, you then need to consider how tall those clouds may get. Remember that once the cloud forms you need to forget the dry adiabatic reference line (the green one) and look to the moist adiabatic reference line (the red dashed one). If the red temperature line (where you estimated cloudbase to be) continues up parallel to the moist adiabatic that cloud will continue to grow until it hits an inversion identified by the red temperature going to the right of the moist adiabatic reference line. In this case we could have some clouds going up and off the chart into the 20,000 ft range given enough heating on the ground. I personally would be very wary flying on a day like this. Since the blue line (the dewpoint) and the red temp. line also come together for a bit, and are generally close together means moist air (easier to cloud up) and potential showers. Hayden"
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interesting discussion by Hayden Glatte:
Actually this is very close to mm5 prediction. Mm5 predicted lift to around 14,000 ft and that is what this skew-t is saying. The only true inversion is at 14,000 where you see the temperature line go straight up for a bit. Everything below that point is unstable because it follows the DALR more or less. The slight curving away from the DALR just means that a thermal will be slowed or maybe stopped if it isn't strong enough. If the temperature had been one or two degrees warmer at g
round level you would have an easy climb to 14,000 (600mb) I always check the true skew-t to the mm5 and to my experience if I flew during that time. Besides learning a lot about the air you will also eventually be good at reading any skew-t for any part of the world you happen to be flying in. Remember that a skew-t won't look the same as the mm5 sounding graph because the temperature scale is set on a skew to make it easier to read when air is stable or unstable. The true skill to
acquire is to get the morning skew-t and then figure out from that information what the day is going to be like. All you need is to get is the predicted high temperature for the day and the predicted dew point. Draw in the temp. line and then with with forecasted dewpoint figure out whether there will be clouds or not. Using this technique it is much easier to see the inversions and at what time they will break down or not break down. With practice you'll be able to read a skew-t with a glance. Figuring out the winds for the afternoon using the morning skew- t is very difficult but doable.You just need to find a lot more information. I let the giant cray computer do it which I find amazingly accurate and most easily viewed on the mm5.
PROVOLT SEED ORCHARD weather report
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more helpful quotes for understanding inland mountain weather:
When the Jet Stream is overhead as it was today there is a tremendous amount of energy close by. Waves can be set up in mountainous areas which can cause powerful and sudden wind shifts at the surface. -Bruce
As long as the jet stream is close, it is prone to weather weirdness. But it could still be fine. Just not very predictable. -Paul M.
Another great commentary from weather guru Hayden on reading the MM5 report:
"Yes, nice looking lapse rate but where you figured out cloudbase to be at about 7000 ft, you then need to consider how tall those clouds may get. Remember that once the cloud forms you need to forget the dry adiabatic reference line (the green one) and look to the moist adiabatic reference line (the red dashed one). If the red temperature line (where you estimated cloudbase to be) continues up parallel to the moist adiabatic that cloud will continue to grow until it hits an inversion identified by the red temperature going to the right of the moist adiabatic reference line. In this case we could have some clouds going up and off the chart into the 20,000 ft range given enough heating on the ground. I personally would be very wary flying on a day like this. Since the blue line (the dewpoint) and the red temp. line also come together for a bit, and are generally close together means moist air (easier to cloud up) and potential showers. Hayden"
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